Six decision frameworks that changed my life.

How great leaders avoid stupid decisions

I have to confess: I've spent much of my career paralyzed by indecision.

Sometimes I worry "What if I’m missing something obvious that will make this look stupid later?"

Other times I know the right decision deep down, I just don’t want to do it because it involves emotional risk.

This year I’ve resolved to make good decisions faster.

And these six frameworks have proven incredibly helpful:

1. Jeff Bezos: Regret Minimization Framework

For major decisions, Bezos frames decisions by asking, "When I’m 80, will I regret not doing this?" That framing cuts through short-term fears and focuses you on what actually matters.

2. Reid Hoffman: Priority Ranking

When deciding between options, Reid Hoffman rejects traditional "pros and cons" lists because they create false equivalence between critical and trivial criteria. 

Instead, he first ranks his overall priorities in business and life. Then he makes each decision by choosing the option that best supports his #1 priority. He only considers priorities #2 or #3 if there's a tie.

3. One-Way vs. Two-Way Door Framework

Jeff Bezos again. Two-way doors are reversible decisions, so don’t spend too much time on them. One-way doors are irreversible, so it’s worth spending time doing the analysis to get them right.

4. Daniel Kahneman: Pre-Mortem Analysis

For major decisions, Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman recommends a “pre-mortem.” Ask yourself “If this ends up failing, what will be the most likely cause?” This helps counteract overconfidence to expose hidden risks or blind spots. The exercise also works well with a team.

5. Colin Powell: The 40-70 Rule

For risky decisions with high uncertainty, former General Colin Powell says you should act when you have 40-70% of the information you wish you had. Below 40%, you're just guessing. Above 70%, you're probably waiting too long.

6. Decide in the Morning

Neuroscientists have shown that heated emotions worsen decision making. If you’re sad, angry or stressed, get a good night’s sleep before you make the call.

Final Note

The beauty of these frameworks is that you can combine them. For instance, use the One-Way/Two-Way Door to classify the decision, the 40-70 Rule to determine timing, get a good night's sleep, and then use Regret Minimization to make the final call.